Monday, 18 August 2014

Insider buying and share buy-back

I now believe the fear of a big sustained market correction is over and the market will either move up or sideway.  I am back in accumulation mode; however, values are becoming more difficult to find.

The disposal of Innovalues turned out to be a bad move as the share price continued to move up strongly, fuelled by significant insider buying.  On the other hand, selling of MTQ turned up to be the right move as the price has corrected quite substantially after I have sold.  The CEO of MTQ Kuah Boon Wee, who is also the son of its Chairman and controlling shareholder Kuah Kok Kim, bought a small amount of MTQ shares recently, signaling that he feels that MTQ is undervalued.  Due to the dismay 1Q15 result released recently, at the last closing price $1.47, the valuation of MTQ is neither attractive nor bad.  With 1Q15 earning-per-share of 2.74 cents, MTQ is trading at an extrapolated price-earning-ratio (EPS) of 13.4.  If the results for the next few quarters improve, further price weakness may be an opportunity for me to accumulate MTQ again.  I will not do anything for time being until the release of its 2Q15 results or its price corrects another 10 to 20%.

Stock investment is a probabilistic game and we can only be spot-on on hindsight!  I feel that an investor should always maintain a positive attitude to enjoy the investment journey.  Hence, I choose to congratulate myself to achieve more than 20% return on Innovalues after holding the stock for about 6 months.  I have more to cheer for MTQ as I have achieved more than 100% return on the MTQ shares bought with my SRS fund and more than 50% return on those bought with cash. My 1st purchase of MTQ using SRS fund was in July 12 while my 1st purchase of MTQ using cash was in October 12; I added more when MTQ's results got better along the way; hence, the return on MTQ is fantastic!

Chip Eng Seng, a stock I hold in small quantity, has moved up strongly these few days, fuelled by significant share buy-backs.  Insider buying and share buyback, especially in large quantity, are always perceived very positively by market players (including investors and speculators).  I believe Chip Eng Seng's results for the next few quarters will be good with the completion of Alexandra Central, which is a mixed commercial and hotel development, by December 2014.  Like EC, for industrial and commercial property developments, the developers can only book the profits and transfer the fund back to the parents after the TOP.

I expect Chip Eng Seng to continue to move up and will increase my stake if the price does not run up too fast.

XMH is a stock which I bought and sold in 2013 with great profit - bought at an average price of about 26 cents and sold at an average price of about 40 cents.  The share price has declined after the results turned bad. An independent director Hong Pian Tee bought 500 lots at 31.5 cents recently.  I believe the company has turned around and have initiated a small position.

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